da Intermonte – UNIDATA company research report

Buon pomeriggio,

di seguito ed in allegato inviamo il company research report relativo a UNIDATA a cura di Intermonte.

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Mina

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Transition Year Ahead with Upside from New Projects

FY25 results were a neutral release, as extensive preliminaries had already been disclosed in mid-February. With the call taking place at the end of March, the focus shifted to 1Q trading – in line with historical patterns—and to the outlook for 2026. 2026 is expected to be a transition year, supported by solid residential trends but with some volatility related to the timing of project ramp-ups. Execution may face timing delays due to construction complexity, although underlying demand remains strong. Guidance may prove conservative, with upside from project acceleration or new customer/tender wins.

• Final FY25 results: bottom line hit by temporary items. On release of preliminary results on 12 February, the company provided key financial figures on FY25 (turnover, adj. EBITDA, CapEx and net debt) at the high end of the previously announced ranges. The reported bottom line came in below our expectations, mainly due to a €1.0mn amortized cost of new financing (IFRS 9), which led to higher interest expenses (€3.3mn vs. our estimate of €1.5mn) and higher taxes, also driven by the accounting treatment (~€1.9mn treated as taxable income), resulting in ~€0.4m additional taxes in 2025 to be recovered over ~7 years. Conversely, FCFO was stronger than expected (€20.3mn vs. our estimate of €18.6mn), supported by better NWC dynamics.
• Confident tone from the FY25 call. 1Q seen in line with management expectations, with typical early-year softness offset by solid underlying growth of recurring revenues, supported by resilient residential trends, wholesale momentum (including submarine cable capacity sales), and continued commercial traction with Open Fiber. Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a transition year, with revenue variability driven by infrastructure project timing (Unifiber/Unicenter, potentially shifting into 2027), while the public administration remains a growth area albeit volatile. Strong demand and strategic assets (data centres, incl. Unicenter, and submarine cable) underpin the medium-term story, with Rome emerging as a hub despite rising competition. In parallel, ongoing sector consolidation provides additional options, with the group positioning itself as a potential aggregator among smaller players, in a disciplined manner and alert to opportunities, while viewing large incumbents as less aggressive competitive threats.
• Change in estimates. We have tweaked our estimates, leading to a negligible change in EPS.
• BUY confirmed; target still €4.5. The new plan reaffirmed management’s ambition of turning Unidata into a TechCo serving larger clients in a more competitive environment, implying some margin dilution and investment levels broadly in line with the previous plan. Unidata could play an active role in the Italian telecom shake-up, exploring options to strengthen its position, including consolidation; with strategic assets like its Rome FTTH network and strong infrastructure capabilities, the stock retains speculative appeal. The stock is trading at an undemanding c.4x EV/EBITDA’26E (EU telco sector at c. 6x), and at our TP it would trade at 5.5x (INTRED is currently trading at c.7x).