da Intermonte – INTRED company research report

Buon pomeriggio,

di seguito ed in allegato inviamo il company research report relativo a INTRED a cura di Intermonte.

Rimaniamo a disposizione per ulteriori informazioni.

Un caro saluto,

Mina

M: +39 3311312791

Record FY25 Margins; Business Plan Update After Summer

FY25 final results, the first reported under IAS/IFRS, were broadly in line with our expectations, reaching record profitability of almost 46%, and reflecting the increasing contribution of recurring, higher-quality revenues and the scalability of the business model. The main catalyst for the equity story is the business plan update, expected after the summer following the go-live of the new data centre in Brescia, alongside the transfer of the listing to the STAR segment. We keep our BUY rating and €16 TP.

• FY25 results: revenues reached €55.8mn (+1.1% YoY, published on 12 Feb), reflecting the phasing-out of non-recurring school tenders and a stronger focus on recurring revenues, which account for over 95.6% of the total. Organic revenues grew by +8.4%, while recurring revenues reached €51.7mn (+7.2% YoY). EBITDA rose to €25.5mn (+4.1% YoY, in line with our exp.) with the margin expanding to 45.8% (from 44.4%), driven by operating leverage and a higher-quality revenue mix. Operating costs decreased by 2.0% YoY, reflecting ongoing efficiency measures and optimization of the operating perimeter following the integration of Connecting Italia. EBIT slightly declined to €12.4mn (-1.4% YoY, our exp. €12.3mn) while net income increased to €8.3mn (+4.2% YoY), better than our exp. (€7.5mn) thanks to lower taxes. The company continued to invest heavily in infrastructure, with CapEx of €21.2mn (€190mn invested since 2016, mainly in FTTH development) and resulting in net debt increasing to €42.1mn (vs €35.7mn as at YE24). Excluding IFRS 16, net debt stood at €39.5mn.
• Confident tone from the call. In FY25, solid high single-digit organic growth was driven by the strong momentum of core services, with an increasing share of recurring B2B and public sector revenues. For FY26, the company expects to offset one-off revenues from school tenders and return to FCF generation. The transition to IAS/IFRS had a limited overall impact, with a c. +1pp margin improvement broadly offset by higher D&A. The ongoing shift to owned infrastructure is reducing leasing costs and improving efficiency. From a competitive standpoint, management expects to keep a strong position in the local B2B segment, with Poste/TIM integration likely to be gradual and take 1–2 years after closing.
• Change in estimates. We have tweaked our estimates, leading to negligible changes to EPS.
• BUY confirmed; target still €16.0. FY25 results confirmed good visibility on the business trajectory and profitability pattern. We also expect Data Centre revenues (now >3% of the total) to accelerate further, supported by strong demand for dedicated infrastructure solutions. In addition, management’s ambition to move to the STAR segment by year‑end provides a clear corporate catalyst. Meanwhile, the company is well placed to pursue differentiation opportunities in adjacent segments, with further upside potential from M&A. The proprietary network and loyal customer base remain valuable strategic assets, enhancing INTRED’s positioning in a potential market‑consolidation phase. The stock is currently trading at c.7x EV/EBITDA’26 (Unidata c.4x, TLC Sector c.6x).